Editor's note: The opinions in this article are the author's, as published by our content partner, and do not represent the views of MSN or Microsoft. In the past, markets have tumbled and economies have gone south due to such things as the failure of a prominent financial institution or the crash of a currency. Financial crises usually have visible and specific triggering events; recessions come upon us with less drama, for example with declining homepurchases leading to construction layoffs and widening unemployment. Escalation and de-escalation of the trade war with China sent many grizzled market veterans to a new level of incredulity and simple confusion. Manufacturing is sending signs of trouble, with the bellwether Purchasing Managers' Index below the recessionary threshold of 50 last week. _______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ Now, we have a president who desperately wants a pre-election economic boost but is engaged in a volatile and seemingly unpredictable set of trade wars. In this not very brave new world, it is hard to imagine how corporate leaders can make the long-term investment decisions that would drive economic growth forward. Video: The countdown to recession has begun, but one strategist says markets will rally first (CNBC) There could yet be a precipitating event that ignites a financial crisis. Other than pursuing the trade war, the president's main tactic has been to attempt to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further. President Trump seems to view things exclusively through a reelection lens, so his comments have little weight at the Fed. The Fed is reluctant to cut now, when the need is not obvious, since it could find itself with few arrows in its quiver if a crisisor deeprecession occurred.
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